The government continued to step up warnings over the weekend that a 'no deal' Brexit at the end of October was now a "very real prospect", revealing that it was "operating on the assumption" that the UK will leave the EU without a deal.
In comments that will cause huge concern to many business leaders and environmental campaigners alike, the newly appointed chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove wrote in The Sunday Times that while the government would continue to pursue a reformed Withdrawal Agreement exiting the EU by October 31 was now non-negotiable.
"With a new prime minister, a new government, and a new clarity of mission, we will exit the EU on October 31," he wrote. "No ifs. No buts. No more delay. Brexit is happening.
"The EU's leaders have, so far, said they will not change their approach - it's the unreformed withdrawal agreement, take it or leave it," he added. "We still hope they will change their minds, but we must operate on the assumption that they will not."
The comments came as reports suggested the government has formed a six-strong 'war cabinet' of senior Ministers, which will be led by Gove and will meet daily to drive forward 'no deal' planning across government.
The new Chancellor Sajid Javid also told the Sunday Telegraphthat "significant extra funding" would be assigned to 'no deal' projects, including the launch of one of the "biggest ever public information campaigns" to inform businesses and the public of how best to prepare for a 'no deal' exit.
Meanwhile, Johnson spent much of the weekend touting plans for his domestic agenda, signalling his support for a new rail link between Manchester and Leeds ahead of trips to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland today where he is expected to announce a £300m funding boost for "growth deals" for the devolved administrations. Reports today suggested Javid could announce a further £1bn of 'no deal' related funding within days.
However, the blitz of no deal announcements was countered by a flurry of warnings from business groups who are increasingly fearful that a 'no deal' Brexit will unleash serious economic consequences - concerns that are shared by environmental groups which have repeatedly warned 'no deal' would prove "disastrous" for environmental protection and decarbonisation efforts.
The CBI issued its latest warning today that the UK was not adequately prepared for a 'no deal' Brexit and could not mitigate all the economic risks that came with the immediate introduction of trade barriers with its largest trading partner.
Meanwhile, a major new report from the Institute for Government think tank today warned that there was "no such thing as a managed no deal" and that while Ministers could prepare for some of the technical policy changes that would be required if the UK crashes out of the EU they could not fully prepare for how businesses and the public will respond.
Previous 'no deal' planning technical notices released under Theresa May's government ahead of the previous March Brexit deadline suggested wide-ranging implications for a host of green industries, including changes to carbon trading rules, new administrative requirements for chemicals producers and users, and uncertainty over the future of EU environmental targets.
The government is now expected to release additional updates and step up calls for businesses to prepare for any administrative changes. For example, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) today issued an update reiterating that while the UK would leave the EU emissions trading scheme as of October 31 under a 'no deal' scenario, it would maintain Monitoring, Reporting and Verification arrangements for companies covered by the scheme "to ensure continuing transparency over greenhouse gas emissions".
It also confirmed that a new domestic Carbon Emissions Tax at a rate of £16 a tonne for emissions over and above a site's ETS cap would replace the EU scheme with effect from November 4. The aviation sector would not be subject to the Carbon Emissions Tax, although operators would be required to honour Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification requirements throughout 2019.
A government consultation response on proposals for a new post-Brexit long term carbon pricing strategy is also imminent. The government reiterated today that "there is no change to the UK's deep commitment to domestic and international efforts to tackle climate change and the Carbon Price Support rate would continue to apply a carbon price to generators throughout this period".
However, many green business leaders and investors remain fearful that the economic fallout from a no deal Brexit will act as a significant drag on decarbonisation efforts, while also leading for huge levels of disruption for clean tech businesses and exporters.
A report earlier this month from the Select Committee of MPs that monitors plans to leave the EU offered a similarly damning assessment of UK preparedness and the likely economic consequences of a 'no deal' exit.
Committee Chair, Hilary Benn MP, said the cross-party group of MPs had "heard from representatives of important sectors of the UK economy which are all great British success stories".
"Every single one warned us of the damaging consequences faced by their members in the event of a no-deal Brexit," he added. "The UK's position as the front-runner destination for venture capital investment in technology firms would be jeopardised. The UK's car industry would be put at a competitive disadvantage because it would face tariffs on its exports to the EU and interruptions to its highly-integrated supply chains. ‘No deal' would lead to problems with some food supplies and, we were told, would be 'disastrous' for UK farming. The sudden introduction of tariffs on the pharmaceuticals and chemicals industries would seriously challenge the viability of their supply chains. The UK's higher education sector - a world leader in science and research - would experience a short-term shock and longer-term reputational damage from which it would struggle to recover. And UK services businesses would risk loss of market access and face uncertainty about how no deal would affect their staff working in the EU because they would be treated as third country providers by the EU."
Moreover, with the government's Environment Bill and Agriculture Bill still not finalised a 'no deal' Brexit would pose major questions about the UK's environmental governance framework from this autumn.
"If the UK exits the EU with no deal in October, we risk severe environmental impacts," warned Amy Mount of the Greener UK campaign. "With the Environment Bill already behind schedule, there would be a gaping hole in enforcing the laws that keep us safe and the natural world healthy. Add to that the unknown contingency measures the government would be taking to deal with the disruption, the strong possibility of a US trade deal on US terms, and potential deregulation in areas such as farming. This at a time when all our efforts should be focused on raising the bar to address the environmental emergency."
The potential environmental fall out from a 'no deal' Brexit was further highlighted over the weekend, after NFU President Minnette Batters warned that such a scenario would necessitate an urgent watering down of current farming rules.
The farming industry has been broadly supportive of the government's plans for a net zero transition and relatively high post-Brexit environmental standards as part of a new trade deal with the EU.
But in a Twitter exchange with a number of environmental campaigners Batters warned a 'no deal' Brexit would require a re-think. "Full on crisis planning for No Deal, will need reciprocal tariffs in place for those currently unprotected," she wrote. "Talk of higher standards in a No Deal scenario is impossible. Ministers will need to stick to [their] pre referendum promise of deregulating farming to allow survival."
When challenged on whether the public would support a dilution of standards, Batters insisted there would be no choice if British farmers were to compete with a sudden influx of imports that had not been produced to EU standards. "I have fought on maintaining standards every day of every week," she wrote. "But it has to be recognised now that in a #NoDeal scenario we would need to focus on the survival of farmers and farming. We simply couldn't continue to abide with EU rules and have a US trade deal under WTO terms."
Environmental campaigner Miles King accused the NFU of undertaking a "massive reverse ferret" on its previous commitment to high standards. "All those fine words about the UK's high environmental, food safety and animal welfare standards [were] just... words spoken by a person," he added. "NFU reverting to type."
But in response Batters said she remained "100 per cent committed to all our food values and I always will. But to sit back and think that life will be fine with the same or higher regulation, and allowing raw ingredients in using products illegal for our farmers to use here, is a betrayal I will never accept".
A spokesperson for Defra insisted there no change in the government's repeated pledges to maintain "world-leading" environmental and animal welfare standards post-Brexit. "As we have already made very clear, we will not weaken any of our high environmental standards when we have left the EU and, where possible, will even look to enhance these even further," they said. "We have stated repeatedly that we are ready for a no deal Brexit and will intervene to provide direct support to boost some sectors if required."
However, Mount warned that the drive to prepare for a 'no deal' Brexit presented fundamental questions that the new administration is yet to address. "The attempted normalisation of a no-deal Brexit raises major questions, the most critical of which is: what is the government seeking to achieve - a high standards UK or a race to the bottom?"she said. "The Prime Minister and his new cabinet must be honest with the public about what they prefer."
As Prime Minister Boris Johnson packs his government with an inherently combustible mix of environmental advocates and libertarian-leaning free trade enthusiasts, the future of environmental regulation is just one of many hugely important debates that would be sparked by a 'no deal' conflagration of current trading arrangements. And like so many other aspects of the Brexit landscape, it is an area where businesses and investors have no idea whether critical questions can be resolved before or after the UK leaves the EU, 'no ifs, no buts', at the end of October.
