Recently, Perret Associates, a coal industry consultant, said that due to China's coal demand exceeding expectations, the company has significantly lowered its forecast for global seaborne thermal coal surplus supply in 2020 to 17 million tons.
In April, the company predicted that the global coal surplus supply will be 56 million tons in 2020, mainly due to the global anti-epidemic lockdown measures.
"From March to April this year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic broke out on a global scale, leading to a sharp drop in coal demand and a decline in coal prices. In May, the international coal market began to pick up, and the rebound continued to accelerate in June." Perrit Consulting said.
However, the company said that due to China's unclear import policy in the second half of this year, there are still uncertainties in the future global coal supply.
"Since the implementation of the blockade measures in February, China's economy has continued to recover. It is expected that in 2020, China's thermal coal demand will increase by 2.3% year-on-year to 3.2 billion tons." The company said. It is estimated that in 2020, global thermal coal demand will drop by 8% year-on-year to 80 million tons.
Production decline
Parit Consulting said that in 2020, global thermal coal exports are expected to drop to 94 million tons. Among them, Indonesia's thermal coal exports fell the most.
The company predicts that Indonesia's thermal coal exports this year are expected to be 8-16 million tons, while exports from major coal exporting countries such as Russia, Australia, South Africa, Colombia and the United States will usher in varying degrees of decline.
"U.S. coal exports are expected to fall by nearly 50% year-on-year, while Colombia's exports are down 15.7% year-on-year. Last year, the two countries' coal exports are expected to be 34 million tons and 75 million tons, respectively." The company said.
