According to the CEEW-CEF study, the cumulative EV sales in all vehicle segments could cross over 100 million units by FY30 which is 200 times its current market size. At the end of March 2020, the total number of registered electric vehicles in India stood at only half a million. Said Vaibhav Pratap Singh, senior analyst at CEEW-CEF, and lead author of the study, “Availability and affordability of capital for OEMs, battery manufacturers, charge point operators, and end consumers would be key.”
The CEEW-CEF study also estimates that realising India’s EV ambition would require an estimated annual battery capacity of 158 GWh by FY30. This presents a massive market opportunity for domestic manufacturers. Even if 50% of the battery manufacturing capacity were indigenous, investments would amount to as much as $6.1 billion (Rs 42,900 crore) by FY30 says the study. Further, the cumulative investments required would exceed $12.3 billion (Rs 85,900 crore) in case of 100% indigenisation of battery manufacturing.
According to the study, India would also need a network of over 2.9 million public charging points by FY30, beyond the in-home charging points. This could create another massive market opportunity requiring cumulative investments of up to $2.9 billion (Rs 20,600 crore) until 2030. Currently, there are just 1800 public charging points across the country.
The EV market also presents a huge opportunity for India’s automobile loan market. According to the study, if 50% of the EV upfront costs – $103 billion (Rs 7,21,000 crore) — required through FY21 —FY30 were to be financed through debt, the banking sector would have to more than triple its current advances of $31 billion (Rs 2,17,000 crore) towards vehicle loans in the next 10 years.
India’s 2030 EV ambition, signalled by NITI Aayog, states that 70% of all commercial cars, 30% of private cars, 40% buses, and 80% two and three-wheeler sales in 2030 would be electric.
