Projections from Cornwall Insight Australia show there is ~7GW of battery storage projects proposed or currently in the planning process. Of that 7GW there is just over 900MW of committed or significantly progressed storage projects set to be delivered by 2024.
Key findings
~7GW of battery storage projects either proposed or in planning.
900MW of committed and significantly progressed to be delivered by 2024.
The average capacity of the proposed battery storage projects is ~150MW.
The state with the largest MW of proposed projects is Victoria (VIC) with more than 4GW – more than 40% of recent peak demand.
New South Wales (NSW) currently has 1.3GW – only 9% of recent peak demand but well on the way to the 2.3GW of storage identified in the NSW Roadmap.
The below graph shows the expected committed and proposed battery storage projects against the AEMO ISP Central Case projections.
Ben Cerini, a Principal Consultant at Cornwall Insight, said: “Our projections show that there is currently a strong pipeline for energy storage across the NEM, despite the challenging economics and the continually developing value streams, which can be volatile. But as we have seen, those that move quickly will be rewarded and be in the best possible position to take advantage of new revenue streams when (not if) they arrive.
“The question then becomes, given the size of the storage pipeline and the recent commitment to deliver the largest battery in Australia of 300MW. Do we already need to re-evaluate the amount of storage projected to be built in the NEM?
“Even if we only assume that 10% of the projected storage of will make it to completed projects. That is still a total of ~1.5GW of battery storage that we can expect by 2024 – more than 13x AEMO’s forecast in the Integrated System Plan.
“To be fair, the battery storage forecast by AEMO takes into consideration the reliability of the grid (i.e. the reduction of unserved energy). Therefore, it doesn’t consider the ability of system services contracts to be able to underpin investment in battery storage that allows batteries to then compete in energy and ancillary service markets.
“More battery storage will deliver more system and ancillary services while also assisting during peak demand. Underestimating the role of storage may have significant implications for future projects.”
