The USDA maintained its forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released June 9. The forecasts for soybean planted area, yields and season-average prices were also unchanged.
The 2023-’24 forecast for soybean area planted was maintained at 87.5 million acres, with area harvested predicted at 86.7 million acres. Yields per acre are forecasted at 52 bushels.
The June forecast for U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023-’24 including higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports for 2022-’23, down 15 million bushels to 2
billion based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and competition from South America. With increased supplies for 2023-’24 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, up 15 million bushels.
The USDA currently forecasts that 12.5 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2023-’24, a forecast maintained from the May WASDE. An estimated 11.6 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production in 2022-’23, up from 10.348 billion pounds in 2021-’22.
The season-average price for soybeans was unchanged at $12.10 per bushels, with the projected price for soybean oil also unchanged at 58 cents per pound.
The 2023-’24 global soybean outlook includes higher beginning stocks, lower crush and higher ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks for the U.S. and Brazil are partly offset by lower stocks for Argentina. The stock revisions reflect 2022-’23 production changes for Brazil, up 1 million tons to 156 million, and Argentina, down 2 million to 25 million. Global crush for 2023-’24 is lowered on lower crush for Argentina. Global 2023-’24 ending stocks are increased 800,000 tons to 123.3 million with higher stocks for the U.S., Brazil and the EU, which are partly offset by lower stocks for Argentina and Vietnam.
