Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Set to Peak This Year, Consultancy DNV Says

Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector will likely peak this year due to falling costs for solar and batteries which are encouraging less coal-fired power and oil use, a report by consultancy DNV suggested on Wednesday.

Global C02 emissions rose to a new record high last year, putting a target to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius increasingly out of reach, experts and climate scientists have said.

DNV said even if emissions peak this year, they are cumulative and a slow decline after the peak means warming of 2.2C is the most likely scenario this century.

The build-out of solar photovoltaic (PV) and batteries is booming. In 2023, new solar installations surged by 80% to reach 400 gigawatts (GW) and the costs in many regions became cheaper than coal. As battery prices also fell, it is making 24-hour solar and storage power more accessible.

Battery prices fell by 14% last year and are expected to continue to drop, meaning that electric vehicles will become cheaper too.

China remains the world's largest consumer of coal and the biggest emitter of CO2 but it accounted for 58% of global solar installations and 63% of new electrical vehicle purchases last year.

Its dependence on fossil fuels is expected to fall rapidly as it continues to install more solar and wind.

"Solar PV and batteries are driving the energy transition, growing even faster than we previously forecasted,” said Remi Eriksen, DNV's group president and chief executive.

"Emissions peaking is a milestone for humanity. But we must now focus on how quickly emissions decline and use the available tools to accelerate the energy transition," he added.

In this year's energy outlook report, oil and gas major BP forecast peak CO2 emissions from the energy sector in the middle of this decade based on current trends.

Shell estimates that CO2 emissions from energy use, industrial processes and land use could peak in 2030 at 10% above 2010 levels.