The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global oil production to increase next year, with the bulk coming from countries outside the Opec+ group.
Last week, Opec+ announced it would delay oil production increases by three months until April 2025 on the heels of the US presidential election.
In its December report published on Tuesday, the EIA forecasts that global oil production will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025, despite the Opec+ move.
The EIA expects that non-Opec+ countries will contribute with 90% of the projected oil output growth next year.
Following the Opec+ announcement, the agency sees global oil inventories decreasing by about 700,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2025.
“After the first quarter, additional Opec+ production and continued supply growth outside of Opec+ should reverse the trend of decreasing inventory, and EIA expects inventory to grow by about 100,000 bpd over the remainder of the year,” the agency said.
The EIA believes that inventory builds will put some downward pressure on crude oil prices in the second half of 2025, but not by much.
The agency predicts Brent crude prices to fall from an average of $74 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025 to an average of $72 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, as markets will be relatively balanced on an annual average basis.
According to the EIA, the agency’s January report will be the first to extend forecasts through 2026.
