Shell Cuts Gas Output Guidance on Unplanned Maintenance

Shell Plc, a London-based energy company, has revised its outlook for the first quarter of 2025, expecting lower natural gas production and LNG volumes than previously anticipated. The update points to unplanned maintenance in Australia and adverse weather as key factors. Integrated gas production is now projected at 910,000 to 950,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, an improvement from the last quarter of 2024 but below the earlier forecast of 930,000 to 990,000 barrels. LNG liquefaction volumes are expected to range from 6.4 million to 6.8 million tons, down from the prior estimate of 6.6 million to 7.2 million tons.

Shell Plc sees lower natural gas production and LNG volumes in the first quarter of 2025 than previously expected.

Despite these challenges, Shell reported positive developments elsewhere. Oil production is set to exceed earlier projections, reaching 1.79 million to 1.89 million barrels equivalent per day, compared to the previous range of 1.75 million to 1.95 million. Refining margins also improved, rising to $6.2 per barrel from $5.5 in the prior quarter. The company highlighted a robust start to the year for oil trading, noting that trading and optimization results are expected to be significantly higher than the final quarter of 2024, aligning with stronger performances from mid-2024.

Shell’s Chief Executive Officer, Wael Sawan, has been working to enhance the company’s performance by focusing on oil and gas, reducing costs, and increasing shareholder returns. Last month, Shell raised its cash flow return target to 40% to 50%, up from 30% to 40%. The update does not account for recent global market turbulence following U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, which led to a sharp decline in oil prices and an 11% drop in Shell’s shares last week.

In Australia, cyclones and unexpected maintenance affected gas operations, while oil trading rebounded strongly. Shell, the world’s leading LNG trader, continues to prioritize liquefied natural gas, aiming for 4% to 5% annual sales growth through 2030. Gas trading results are expected to remain steady compared to late 2024, despite some impact from expiring hedge contracts.

The company’s in-house trading unit, covering oil, gas, and electricity, has not recorded a loss in any quarter over the past decade, according to Sawan’s remarks at a New York capital markets day. Meanwhile, rival Exxon Mobil Corp. recently projected a $2.7 billion profit increase for its upcoming quarter, driven by higher oil and gas prices and solid refining and trading outcomes. Shell’s update reflects a mixed but resilient start to 2025, balancing setbacks in gas with gains in oil and trading.